US State Department cables from places I have served plus items from my time as a UN peacekeeper. To increase public awareness of how diplomacy and peacekeeping are (were) actually done. All cables cleared by USG FOIA procedure. Cables are mostly those sent under my name from my posts but also others in which I was directly involved. UN documents and other items will also include occasional notes and background. Most recent in series on top with cables under the new series of UN documents.
Showing posts with label diplomacy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label diplomacy. Show all posts
Tuesday, October 10, 2023
Tuesday, September 19, 2023
Monday, September 11, 2023
Friday, September 1, 2023
88 HARARE 3798: SECURITY ON THE EASTERN BORDER
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Saturday, April 20, 2019
Kosovo: Crafting A Special Status For Northern Kosovo
A piece from 2010 that may be more relevant today as the parties -- especially the US, and the Europeans -- may be more ready to push the parties off dead stopped: https://www.rferl.org/a/Crafting_A_Special_Status_For_Northern_Kosovo/2148191.html
Wednesday, January 16, 2019
Kosovo: SRSG’s meeting with the MAPs of Northern Municipalities on December 9, 2005
Memorandum of Conversation
Internal
Memorandum
Subject:
SRSG’s meeting with the MAPs of Northern Municipalities
Date: 9
December 2005
Venue: Zvecan
Municipality
ISSUES
REQUIRING FOLLOW UP:
.
-
Establish further contacts on the Decentralisation Program.
Municipal
Assembly Presidents:
Mr. Dragisa
Milovic (DM) – Municipal Assembly President of Zvečan/Zvecan;
Mr. Slavisa Ristic (SR) - Municipal Assembly President
of Zubin Potok/Zubin Potok;
Mr. Velimir Bojovic (VB) - Municipal Assembly President
of Leposavic/Leposaviq
UNMIK
participants:
Mr
Søren Jessen-Petersen, Mr Gerard
Gallucci, Mr Petr
Ivantsov, Mr Henrik Villadsen,
Mr Devender Singh (Note taker),
Mr Jean-Luc Sintes, Mr Detlef Beisiegel, Mr Lameck Kawiche.
The
SRSG
briefed the participants on the beginning of the status
process noting that UNMIK is not part of the status process but would
support it within its mandate. While the Status process will focus on
politics, he would like to focus on the people. He underlined that
there will be many concerns and preoccupations in this crucial
period. UNMIK will promote closer collaboration with Belgrade and
Kosovo Serbs to focus on key issues so as to reassure Kosovo Serbs
that any status outcome would focus on their future. He was not
prepared to accept that
people should be let down if there was an unfavourable outcome.
The
SRSG
determined that there were five key areas to reassure Kosovo Serbs in
next few months: i) Standard Implementation process and how UNMIK can
push it; ii) Decentralisation as a fundamental issue with the ongoing
comprehensive reform focussing on minorities needs to be reassured
that they can manage their own affairs; iii) Freedom of movement and
focussing on Kosovo Albanians to do more in this area; iv) Belgrade
getting involved focussing on Kosovo Serbs residing in Kosovo; v)
Kosovo Serb representatives playing their role in key areas through
involvement in institutions and on practical issues. The
SRSG noted
encouraging results from the recent meetings held on practical issues
and felt there was scope for doing more in that area. He touched upon
the modest support provided by the SRSG to the Municipalities given
their enormous needs and hoped that it will lead to more.
The
SRSG then
stressed that security was basis of everything discussed in the
meeting and said that he was aware of immense concern about it. He
stated there had been deeply regrettable incidents over last weeks
and he condemned them. While it was important to resolve these
crimes, it could not be concluded if these were inter-ethnic or who
was responsible for these incidents. Nevertheless, psychological fear
was growing as a result of these incidents leading to diminished
freedom of movement. He informed that, after the bus incident near
Prizren, intensive additional steps are envisaged by Police and KFOR.
The SRSG
hoped that it will have the desired effect even though there were
some senseless people on all sides and it was difficult to stop it
altogether.
DM
thanked the SRSG for providing a general overview on Kosovo. He
agreed that while status talks are ongoing, they have to think of the
people and address their problems. He concurred with the SRSG that
security and freedom of movement are key problems. He claimed that
the level of violence was increasing and KFOR, Police and the
Municipality have to stop it. In this context, he referred to a bomb
thrown in a house in Mali Rudare in Zvecan Municipality. Recalling
recent release of Fatmir Limaj, DM
averred that it would encourage extreme Albanians to continue with
their designs. He affirmed that decentralisation was the key issue
needing resolution and characterised it as “a precondition for all
preconditions”. He favoured creation and establishment of
Municipalities with Serb majorities or with Kosovo Serbs and Kosovo
Albanians together with competencies about Health, Education,
Culture, Police etc. He called for horizontal connection between the
Municipalities and institutional linkages with Serbia. Referring to
Romas in Zitkovac camp and IDPs from Svinjare and Obilic displaced in
Zvecan, he asserted that it was time to provide possibility for IDPs
to return to their homes. DM
argued that it was difficult to get into the institutions while two
thirds of the population is displaced elsewhere. Highlighting high
unemployment rate (60%), he urged all concerned to provide new
opportunities so that people can stay here. He mentioned that he was
interested and sensitive to the problems of North Mitrovica because
many of these impacted on Zvecan. DM
underscored
that status problem could be solved in Kosovo with compromise and
respecting the interests of both sides. Finally, he thanked the SRSG
for his support for the project, which he said was important for
their municipality.
VB
expressed agreement with DM and stated that they have to be prepared
for a decision that they may not like. He expressed fear that status
of Kosovo may be resolved as a future for Albanians but not for
Serbs. He recalled the meeting of 13 Kosovo Serb representatives with
the Status Envoy where all of them expressed their unanimous view
that any decision other than independence could be accepted. He
opined that relations between Kosovo Albanians and Serbs had been
negative all their lives, not just last six years. Recalling that his
municipality was connected to the then autonomous province of ‘Kosovo
and Metohija’, he wondered how a Municipality with 99% Serb
population could be called an ‘Albanik’ Municipality. VB
said he could not accept that Kosovo Albanians were asking for
independence only and nothing else. Referring to disrespect of human
rights for last six years, he claimed that Kosovo Albanians would
behave better as status talks progress but it was not in their
hearts. Taking out a map, he reminisced how his father had to leave
Suva Reka Municipality to settle in North Kosovo and now his grandson
may have to do the same. He contended that any unsuitable decision
from the international community would not create stability in the
region. VB
felt that if final status is independence, not a single Serb will
remain in this area; hence a solution to somehow satisfy both sides
should be found. Pleading for objectivity on both sides, he mentioned
that there were many models which could be followed so that both
communities could live a normal life.
SR
mentioned that while burden of status talks had shifted to Mr
Ahtisaari, UNMIK has obligation in non-status areas. He specifically
referred to Standard Implementation, which he admitted was a process
that can’t be accomplished overnight. He stressed that UNMIK will
have to be very determined to make concrete progress on
decentralisation and it was SRSG’s obligation. He felt that the
Albanian’s wish for an independent state is really to have central
power over the Serbs. The IC must prevent creation of that kind of
central power. He elaborated decentralisation as transferring
authority and power from central level to local levels and not only
creating new Municipalities. He added that diminishing budgetary
support every year does not augur well for good future. SR
mentioned
two villages (Banjë/Banja
and Suvogërll/Suvo Grlo)
in Skenderaj / Srbica
Municipality, which want to be connected to Zubin Potok Municipality
not only for security but other reasons as well. These were
multi-ethnic villages and if a decision in the context of
decentralisation allows this, he would have no objection. He also
pointed out that there were many such villages, where Serbs no longer
reside but will return if connected to Zubin Potok. He claimed that
he had no territorial ambitions. Finally, he said they were ready for
all solutions to status issue. SR also appealed to his colleague
from Leposavic to not leave the rest of them alone in Kosovo.
The
SRSG concluded the meeting by
thanking all the participants for their contributions and responded
that he had not come with any message about a decision that they may
not like but that it was good to prepare for whatever may come.
Appreciating their comments about decentralisation, he said he was
convinced that it will be a key feature of any status outcome. Kosovo
Albanians will have to realize a decentralisation program that leads
to a Kosovo for all communities. If such decentralisation does not
emerge, the Status Envoy will ensure that decentralisation is
integrated with status process with a strong focus on what
communities need. He welcomed all comments especially on multi-ethnic
municipalities. The SRSG recognized
that while regular progress could not be made on returns, UNMIK was
making progress on Romas in lead affected camps. Camp Oesterode is
being prepared as a transit facility for those Romas in the camps,
who want to move there. It will be a step on way to their formal
return to Roma Mahalla
12 December
2005
Tuesday, December 11, 2018
Kosovo: March 2007 -- property Issues in Bosniak Mahalla
On March 16, 2007, I had to call upon our police to stop illegal construction by a local Serb in Bosniak Mahalla, I don't remember the details but the person involved must have been trying to build a large dwelling in a mixed area which the local Albanians and/or others found threatening as well as illegal. (Legality was not a leading motif in the Mahalla.) Below is the complaint from the CCK (I don't speak Serbian and cannot remember what it said) and my reply.
On March 28, I sent this report to HQ:
Re following Police report of last night:
"On Tuesday 27th of March 2007 at approx. 19.45 hrs, an Unidentified Explosive Device exploded at the junction of "Oslobodena Str.' and "Nemanjina Str." in Little Bosnia - Mitrovica North.
Consequences: 03 individual cars slightly damages by parts of the explosive device. No people injured. "
This was apparently a "black grenade" (i.e., a fairly small device) and may have been thrown by a disgruntled young Albanian who had previously in the evening had a altercation with civpol on north side of Bridge. He reportedly threatened the police with further action. Police are still investigating but everyone at the scene -- Albanians and Serbs -- remained calm and apparently already attributed the attack to this "crazy Albanian" and not to inter-ethnic tensions. Nevertheless, police (including UNMIK-P) increased patrols in other mixed areas of north Mitrovica. UNMIK also informed CCK and Mitrovica CEO to assure that things were under control. We also drank tea with mixed group of locals at a small cafe at the scene. Everyone there was calm, including one of the damaged car owners.
Comment: The north shore and especially Bosniak Mahalla remains tense but there have been no more indications of conflict over ongoing construction. However, it is vital that UNMIK-P Enhancement Force be kept at full strength (at least 130) over the next months. We are in deep trouble if we lose control during any reaction to almost certain continued acts of isolated violence.
I should add that while I was drinking tea and smoking a cigar the owner gave me -- everyone was quite uncomfortable with my not smoking -- I heard the men joking in a mix of Serbian and Albanian. Not many places this happens in public in Kosovo. I joined in with the little common language we had and we all laughed in agreement that Kosovo is a crazy place and Bosniak Mahalla the craziest of all. When I got home and was reading in bed, I heard a prolonged burst of automatic weapon fire plus the firing of a pistol. Jumped out of bed and opened by door to the balcony. Scared a poor fellow across the street taking a piss. But I guess it was nothing. Took my heart a little time to slow down enough to permit sleep.
On March 28, I sent this report to HQ:
Re following Police report of last night:
"On Tuesday 27th of March 2007 at approx. 19.45 hrs, an Unidentified Explosive Device exploded at the junction of "Oslobodena Str.' and "Nemanjina Str." in Little Bosnia - Mitrovica North.
Consequences: 03 individual cars slightly damages by parts of the explosive device. No people injured. "
This was apparently a "black grenade" (i.e., a fairly small device) and may have been thrown by a disgruntled young Albanian who had previously in the evening had a altercation with civpol on north side of Bridge. He reportedly threatened the police with further action. Police are still investigating but everyone at the scene -- Albanians and Serbs -- remained calm and apparently already attributed the attack to this "crazy Albanian" and not to inter-ethnic tensions. Nevertheless, police (including UNMIK-P) increased patrols in other mixed areas of north Mitrovica. UNMIK also informed CCK and Mitrovica CEO to assure that things were under control. We also drank tea with mixed group of locals at a small cafe at the scene. Everyone there was calm, including one of the damaged car owners.
Comment: The north shore and especially Bosniak Mahalla remains tense but there have been no more indications of conflict over ongoing construction. However, it is vital that UNMIK-P Enhancement Force be kept at full strength (at least 130) over the next months. We are in deep trouble if we lose control during any reaction to almost certain continued acts of isolated violence.
I should add that while I was drinking tea and smoking a cigar the owner gave me -- everyone was quite uncomfortable with my not smoking -- I heard the men joking in a mix of Serbian and Albanian. Not many places this happens in public in Kosovo. I joined in with the little common language we had and we all laughed in agreement that Kosovo is a crazy place and Bosniak Mahalla the craziest of all. When I got home and was reading in bed, I heard a prolonged burst of automatic weapon fire plus the firing of a pistol. Jumped out of bed and opened by door to the balcony. Scared a poor fellow across the street taking a piss. But I guess it was nothing. Took my heart a little time to slow down enough to permit sleep.
Saturday, November 10, 2018
Kosovo 2007: Understanding the North
Following up the previous entry, from my journal for November 27, 2007.:
Had to go to Pristina today for lunch with the chief DPKO guy for Europe, who encouraged me to keep doing what we are doing and to let them know when UNMIK HQ strays into anything that will upset the apple cart in the north. They liked my dissent messages and share our view that the basic thing is to get the UN out of here before the real crisis hits. That means before Kosovo becomes a failed state and the north fully partitions. The UN New York plan is to somehow squeeze between competing pressures from the West and Russia to leave five months after the UDI expected in the 2nd half of January, turning things essentially over to the EU, before it fully understands what it will be getting. I suggested we won't be able to last five months.
The second code cable I drafted follows here:
Had to go to Pristina today for lunch with the chief DPKO guy for Europe, who encouraged me to keep doing what we are doing and to let them know when UNMIK HQ strays into anything that will upset the apple cart in the north. They liked my dissent messages and share our view that the basic thing is to get the UN out of here before the real crisis hits. That means before Kosovo becomes a failed state and the north fully partitions. The UN New York plan is to somehow squeeze between competing pressures from the West and Russia to leave five months after the UDI expected in the 2nd half of January, turning things essentially over to the EU, before it fully understands what it will be getting. I suggested we won't be able to last five months.
The second code cable I drafted follows here:
Monday, October 15, 2018
May 2007 Vienna Meeting on Kosovo
Went to Vienna at the end of May, 2007 to take part in a meeting of UNMIK & KFOR (NATO in Kosovo) top command with the person designated to be chief of the International Community Office (ICO) mission formed by the US and EU and meant to replace UNMIK after the UN leaves. (Note: The UN is still there.). Subject, northern Kosovo. UNMIK North had spent some months trying to educate the EU on the need for a gradual approach and fending off their efforts to get us to do some difficult "chores" -- like dealing with the local Serb's using dinars and Serbian license plates -- before we hand over to them. I met Pieter Fieth, who would be the head man, when he visited Khartoum as EU envoy for Darfur. He said he remembered me well. But I also heard that he did not like Americans. In any case, once he took over, and with the help of NATO, he proved to believe the best way to "tame" the north was to use force. (See: http://www.transconflict.com/2011/11/kosovo-quint-brinksmanship-241/, http://www.transconflict.com/2011/09/kosovo-nato-actions-illegal-illogical-and-immoral-309/ and related pieces at http://www.transconflict.com/author/gerard-gallucci/.
Here follows the text of the agenda for the Vienna meeting with my annotations for my use as talking points:
Here follows the text of the agenda for the Vienna meeting with my annotations for my use as talking points:
Brainstorming on the north of Kosovo
Date: 31 May
Location: Vienna
Participants:
EU
- Pieter Feith, Yves de Kermabon
- Stefan Lehne, Pedro Serrano
- Torbjorn Sohlstrom, Casper Klynge
UN
-
Joachim Ruecker
NATO
-
Pardew, Naples, COMKFOR
US
-
Fletcher Burton
Agenda
1) Preventing hard partition (lead UNMIK+KFOR)
Questions to answer:
-
Are all partners fully prepared for all possible scenarios? Basic issue: If northerners try to hard partition (e.g., by crossing UNMIK’s three red lines not simply through rhetoric), choice is to counter it through diplomacy and political work or to assume IC military/administrative control of the north. In the latter case it becomes how many troops and police, readiness to counter/arrest/shoot those who resist and appropriate human and financial resources to administer the north for whatever period of time it takes to find locals and local resources to do it.
-
What actions might be necessary during the transition period? How can we ensure full IC support?
-
Belgrade handling?
-
UNMIK actions to prepare for status implementation, e.g. establishment of new municipality of N. Mitrovica. Underway but need direct and practical support of EU and US to focus UNMIK.
2) Integrating the north over time (lead
ICR+ESDP+IMP).
Questions to answer:
-
Which measures are needed to integrate the north/parallel structures? Patient diplomacy and political work with local and central officials plus the resources to offer practical cooperation with IC and between communities and to replace over time resources supplied by Belgrade.
-
How should these measures be paced and timed?
-
Which positive, reassuring, or face-saving measures can be used to accompany ‘hard’ measures? How in the world will you do any “hard” measures without using force? And what will “face saving” look like after taking away ‘their country” and using force to make them submit to the Albanians (which is how they will see it). This strikes me as dangerous thinking because based more on a conception of how things should go rather than an understanding of reality.)
-
When and how should the ICR announce the ‘red lines’ for the north? Should there be a clear signal of strength at the start? I think you “signal strength” quietly through presence. Much more useful will be clear signal of understanding and readiness to work with all communities on practical cooperation. The essential redline to signal directly and quietly – within context of assurances of continued cooperation – is that if local Serb officials refuse to engage with ICO at working level, IC will have no alternative but to consider assuming direct control.
-
How does the ICR ensure international support for his plan and for measures to be taken?
-
Which measures need to be taken vis-à-vis Belgrade, and by whom?
-
How does the ICR deal with a full boycott by the north? Having made clear the above redline, a little patience during the “testing” phase of a “boycott” to see how serious they are or if it is just for form sake and how much and quickly it will “leak.”
-
Agreed end states after 6 or 12 months?
-
How to use the regional EU perspective?
-
How to involve donors at an early stage? With money for QIPs on both sides of River and some infrastructure/job creation activity using private sector.
Intelligence: how do we make sure that ICR and
ESDP HoM have good intel? Best way is people on the ground in each
municipality – including internationals – with locals who will
need to be carefully “milked” by their international colleagues.
PR:
benefits (and limits) of an information campaign?
_________
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Tuesday, October 9, 2018
2007 -- Recommendation for a Stepped Process to Kosovo Independence
By mid-2007, it seemed clear that the Kosovo status stalemate could not hold much longer before the K-Albanians took action on their own. This seemed so to me, though responsible for the K-Serb majority north, as it was to the US, which alone could hold the leash on Pristina. In consultation with the PDSRSG (the principle deputy -- and a former US general -- to the UNMIK SRSG, a hapless German), I drew an outline for a series of steps the K-Albanian leadership could take leading up to a declaration of independence in 2008. They emphasized peaceful, reassuring moves making clear that Kosovo could not wait forever. We hoped at the time that it would coincide with an agreement to implement the Ahtisaari proposals for a unified Kosovo with local autonomy for the K-Serbs. That didn't happen and in February 2008, the Albanians did declare independence unilaterally. I discussed the situation with the south Mitrovica (K-Albanian) city manager and passed him the "stepped process" paper in August. (He later became a minister in the Pristina government.) This was neither a UN nor US initiative but sanctioned unofficially by the PDSRSG. The paper as passed follows:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A Stepped Process
The
current situation of no status and no sure way forward is unstable.
An uncertain process apparently going nowhere – or worse yet
perhaps seen leading to partition or continued association to Serbia
– increasingly unsustainable vis-à-vis Albanian majority. Maybe
by miracle, the parties will reach agreement or the Europeans will
discover they cannot simply sit back and let things drift into the
rocks. Otherwise, K-Albanian frustration with the lack of prospects
– political but also economic, for jobs, electricity, heat, etc –
will make control ever more problematic for everyone. Most Albanians
will be thinking about how to force events. Some may look to threats
and violence, others hopefully for a political way forward. The
essential political option would appear UDI.
UDI
is a huge step. The Albanians were led to believe they would win
independence through the Ahtisaari process and they would have EU and
US support at the end. For UDI, they face moving forward without
this support. The US cannot act alone and it cannot give a “green
light" to unilateral moves by the K-Albanians if it does not
have at least minimum support from the Europeans. However, perhaps
the US could – however reluctantly – use warnings from the
Albanians of intended unilateral moves to push the Europeans forward
into the critical mass necessary for a successful launch. The
Europeans will only respond to crisis; the key is creating a
controlled one unfolding gradually
to give the US the leverage and the time to use it diplomatically.
The path to UDI means the Albanians must make clear to all that
action is necessary but the process will unfold in a way that gives
time for diplomacy to produce a UNSC resolution or US/European
agreement if possible.
The
K-Albanian leadership would have to be united – indeed formation of
a new government of national unity (forget elections) would loudly
signal seriousness of purpose – and resolute to convince the US and
others that they will respond to the political realities of Kosovo
even if it means going it alone or with whatever friends they have.
Nothing should be presented as a threat but simply as a political
course of action forced by events – “we
must respond somehow to the dead-end we have been led into”
– and to preempt
other, less helpful alternatives.
The leadership must accept that threats – of violence in Kosovo or
Presevo and Tetevo – is exactly the wrong strategy for
them (and
only serves Belgrade). The right strategy would be a controlled,
steady, stepped process emphasizing the maturity of the Albanian
leadership and people and their readiness to join the European
community. Every move forward would be with open hands to the
K-Serbs and accompanied by clear and complete commitment to the
Ahtisaari plan. All PISG actions would not only have to adhere
strictly to the Standards but be seen as consistent with, and aimed
at, implementing the Ahtisaari plan in word and spirit. The goal,
the mantra, would be creation of an "independent, fair and just
Kosovo for all its people" with full adherence to the Ahtisaari
plan including the ICO mission.
To
be successful, this strategy requires complete control on the
Albanian side and sufficient steps and time to allow everyone to
react as positively as possible. The united leadership would signal
that they are prepared to take a series of steps leading to the
desired end state (no need to constantly say “independence” since
all know that) no matter what. Each step would have to be broadcast
clearly and ahead of time and carried out in a united, mature, and
responsible manner consistent with strong adherence to carrying out
the Ahtisaari plan and by doing all possible to pro-actively reach
out to and provide for the minority communities. (Bad example new
decision on KS plates/KEK.) All
other goals must be subject to these.
Tactically,
the leadership must remain disciplined and focused. Obsessing about
partition or whatever other “trial-balloons” (such as
confederation) are raised must be avoided in order to maintain
control of the negotiating and broader agenda. Any attempt do divert
attention such as these – even if from some in the IC – must be
seen as provocations and avoided as such.
Possible Steps
First
15 days
-
Reconfirm willingness to hear whatever Serbia has to offer and to judge that on basis of what Kosovo people want and need. Avoid any appearance of conditions for talks. Note special interest in how to best serve interests of non-Albanian communities. (Maybe suggest working group on mechanisms for implementing decentralization/linkages in which K-Serbs, especially from south, might take lead.) Let realities of what can be negotiated or not to emerge from the talks themselves. Go anywhere and raise no procedural problems.
-
Stop talking about possible violence or “instability” and about concerns over partition, etc. Start talking about pressing need to begin dealing practically with Kosovo’s political and economic realities to ensure a peaceful future for all.
-
Begin visible and genuine effort to form all-inclusive “technical” government, suggest this might take place of near-term elections. Suggest this national unity government will remain in place until Status is achieved.
-
Explain quietly to US, Brits, EU, Germans and French – perhaps in that order – that political realities and especially pressure for breaking impasse cannot be put off indefinitely. “We will have to begin responding in a visible way – and participating in elections will not be enough by itself – or risk losing control of the situation. We are exploring political options (not to be specified at this point) but including the “technical government.” We’d appreciate your support for this.” Avoid suggesting deadlines at this point.
Second
15 days
-
Continue serious engagement with Troika but be privately honest with US and others about progress or lack in the “negotiations.” Avoid much public comment.
-
Announce formation of technical government and decision to not hold elections until Status is achieved. (This is first “unilateral” step and no one can complain if you don’t.)
-
Tell US alone what you plan to be doing next few months and explain that it is an effort to manage the process until end-of-year holidays but that this cannot be maintained much longer than beginning of New Year. Tensions will soon outweigh ability to keep things together. US should use this period to get the Europeans ready for declaration.
-
Begin holding series of town meetings in various parts of Kosovo (nowhere provocative though) to “learn the people’s concerns.” Keep the IC out of it (including UNMIK-P) and do whatever is necessary to avoid large crowds or events that get out of control. Reps from all parties can attend or they can be delegated on basis of local politics to represent everyone. (Second “unilateral” step.)
-
Announce that consultations with the people will continue through early December, so that a clear view will be obtained of public concerns and sentiments. (But don’t once say “about independence.” Very important at this phase is what is not said.)
Next 60 days
-
Continue engagement in negotiations.
-
Continue town-hall meetings (with perhaps break for Ramadan days, calling for everyone to reflect about the future and the need for peaceful chance during these days, Imams preaching this will be very effective).
-
Concentrate fully on making technical government work. Work as much as possible – and as visibly as possible – with the EU and ICO on getting ready to implement Ahtisaari plan. Do as much as possible on getting ready to implement new municipalities. (Perhaps allow UNMIK creation of North Mitrovica as first step and sign of seriousness.) Avoid public disagreements on anything remotely related to status.
-
Do everything possible to make Serbs, especially south of the River, as happy as possible. Support any realistic returns project. Resolve any procedural issues, use all possibilities for practical cooperation
-
Focus all resources possible on preparing for the winter.
-
Keep US and others privately apprised of your views on Troika process. If the process is visibly moribund or going nowhere at some point, urgently ask US and others “what do we do now” but make clear if necessary – and not through the press – that the CG principles cannot be abandoned without great political cost for all.
Next
30 days
-
Wrap up town hall meetings in time to prepare a “report” that will go to the national assembly on December 6. Announce that the Assembly will take up consideration of how to respond to what has been learned from these consultations with the people and the results of the negotiations. Give no date.
-
Give US and others frank, but private, view of value of negotiations. Explain that you have been working hard to manage political process but things must begin moving forward one way or another early next year.
-
Allow “spontaneous” but absolutely controlled public rallies (by party and/or region) in favor of taking next steps, in favor of independence. As large as can be safely held with NO incidents whatever. These must be seen as mature displays of readiness for assuming control over own future. No threatening words or actions.
-
Announce travel of unity team (all government parties) to major capitals to consult on next steps consistent with Ahtisaari plan early in new year.
-
Encourage and help everyone to enjoy the coming holidays.
-
Tell US alone (and maybe Brits) that national assembly will go into session to discuss next steps after holidays and to begin drafting a declaration of independence. You are prepared to discuss but this step will be inevitable. Process will include further consultations and town meetings to vet the document. Declaration would be made sometime early spring. If meanwhile, EU or even UNSC can make decision, so much the better.
-
Show IC calm determination. Continue to exercise control, resist all provocations (especially from north) and give UNMIK and KFOR full support for their efforts.
January
2008
-
At beginning of month, inform other key countries that Assembly will begin drafting declaration by month’s end.
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Assembly reconvenes and finishes discussion of previous consultations with focus on next steps in line with Ahtisaari plan. All views aired, visibly gauge public reaction.
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By month’s end, national unity government announces that Assembly will next take up task of drafting a declaration of independence while awaiting possible UNSC action. (Big unilateral step but still not the final one).
February
2008
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Make it privately clear to US and Europeans that you have done all possible to give them time but with or without them, you must take next steps to preserve stability. You will do your part to maintain security and to prepare for implementation of Ahtisaari plan. They must get ready to play theirs. Reaffirm your adherence to CG three principles and remind them of theirs. No one can be allowed to veto this process. Declaration – date certain – will be in April.
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Process of drafting Declaration enshrining commitment to Kosovo for all its people and to Ahtisaari plan starts in Assembly. No rallies or demonstrations at this point put serious discussion throughout the land.
March
2008
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Draft declaration is approved and published. New series of town meeting held to consult with the people.
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Continued efforts to publicly reassure and reach-out to non-Albanians.
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Absolute control necessary. No violence, threats or incidents. Resist all provocations while supporting KPS, UNMIK and KFOR as necessary.
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US and others informed of date in April for declaration. Message: the public process so far has helped to channel and contain public sentiments, process cannot now be stopped.
April
2008
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Announce elections for four months after declaration (as called for in Ahtisaari plan).
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Be ready for crisis appeals/demands from IC to give negotiations “another chance.”
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More large but controlled spontaneous marches and rallies for declaration.
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April 23 (?), declaration approved by Assembly.
end text
Saturday, August 18, 2018
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