By mid-2007, it seemed clear that the Kosovo status stalemate could not hold much longer before the K-Albanians took action on their own. This seemed so to me, though responsible for the K-Serb majority north, as it was to the US, which alone could hold the leash on Pristina. In consultation with the PDSRSG (the principle deputy -- and a former US general -- to the UNMIK SRSG, a hapless German), I drew an outline for a series of steps the K-Albanian leadership could take leading up to a declaration of independence in 2008. They emphasized peaceful, reassuring moves making clear that Kosovo could not wait forever. We hoped at the time that it would coincide with an agreement to implement the Ahtisaari proposals for a unified Kosovo with local autonomy for the K-Serbs. That didn't happen and in February 2008, the Albanians did declare independence unilaterally. I discussed the situation with the south Mitrovica (K-Albanian) city manager and passed him the "stepped process" paper in August. (He later became a minister in the Pristina government.) This was neither a UN nor US initiative but sanctioned unofficially by the PDSRSG. The paper as passed follows:
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A Stepped Process
The
current situation of no status and no sure way forward is unstable.
An uncertain process apparently going nowhere – or worse yet
perhaps seen leading to partition or continued association to Serbia
– increasingly unsustainable vis-à-vis Albanian majority. Maybe
by miracle, the parties will reach agreement or the Europeans will
discover they cannot simply sit back and let things drift into the
rocks. Otherwise, K-Albanian frustration with the lack of prospects
– political but also economic, for jobs, electricity, heat, etc –
will make control ever more problematic for everyone. Most Albanians
will be thinking about how to force events. Some may look to threats
and violence, others hopefully for a political way forward. The
essential political option would appear UDI.
UDI
is a huge step. The Albanians were led to believe they would win
independence through the Ahtisaari process and they would have EU and
US support at the end. For UDI, they face moving forward without
this support. The US cannot act alone and it cannot give a “green
light" to unilateral moves by the K-Albanians if it does not
have at least minimum support from the Europeans. However, perhaps
the US could – however reluctantly – use warnings from the
Albanians of intended unilateral moves to push the Europeans forward
into the critical mass necessary for a successful launch. The
Europeans will only respond to crisis; the key is creating a
controlled one unfolding gradually
to give the US the leverage and the time to use it diplomatically.
The path to UDI means the Albanians must make clear to all that
action is necessary but the process will unfold in a way that gives
time for diplomacy to produce a UNSC resolution or US/European
agreement if possible.
The
K-Albanian leadership would have to be united – indeed formation of
a new government of national unity (forget elections) would loudly
signal seriousness of purpose – and resolute to convince the US and
others that they will respond to the political realities of Kosovo
even if it means going it alone or with whatever friends they have.
Nothing should be presented as a threat but simply as a political
course of action forced by events – “we
must respond somehow to the dead-end we have been led into”
– and to preempt
other, less helpful alternatives.
The leadership must accept that threats – of violence in Kosovo or
Presevo and Tetevo – is exactly the wrong strategy for
them (and
only serves Belgrade). The right strategy would be a controlled,
steady, stepped process emphasizing the maturity of the Albanian
leadership and people and their readiness to join the European
community. Every move forward would be with open hands to the
K-Serbs and accompanied by clear and complete commitment to the
Ahtisaari plan. All PISG actions would not only have to adhere
strictly to the Standards but be seen as consistent with, and aimed
at, implementing the Ahtisaari plan in word and spirit. The goal,
the mantra, would be creation of an "independent, fair and just
Kosovo for all its people" with full adherence to the Ahtisaari
plan including the ICO mission.
To
be successful, this strategy requires complete control on the
Albanian side and sufficient steps and time to allow everyone to
react as positively as possible. The united leadership would signal
that they are prepared to take a series of steps leading to the
desired end state (no need to constantly say “independence” since
all know that) no matter what. Each step would have to be broadcast
clearly and ahead of time and carried out in a united, mature, and
responsible manner consistent with strong adherence to carrying out
the Ahtisaari plan and by doing all possible to pro-actively reach
out to and provide for the minority communities. (Bad example new
decision on KS plates/KEK.) All
other goals must be subject to these.
Tactically,
the leadership must remain disciplined and focused. Obsessing about
partition or whatever other “trial-balloons” (such as
confederation) are raised must be avoided in order to maintain
control of the negotiating and broader agenda. Any attempt do divert
attention such as these – even if from some in the IC – must be
seen as provocations and avoided as such.
Possible Steps
First
15 days
-
Reconfirm
willingness to hear whatever Serbia has to offer and to judge that
on basis of what Kosovo people want and need. Avoid any appearance
of conditions for talks. Note special interest in how to best serve
interests of non-Albanian communities. (Maybe suggest working group
on mechanisms for implementing decentralization/linkages in which
K-Serbs, especially from south, might take lead.) Let realities of
what can be negotiated or not to emerge from the talks themselves.
Go anywhere and raise no procedural problems.
-
Stop
talking about possible violence or “instability” and about
concerns over partition, etc. Start talking about pressing need to
begin dealing practically with Kosovo’s political and economic
realities to ensure a peaceful future for all.
-
Begin visible and genuine
effort to form all-inclusive “technical” government, suggest
this might take place of near-term elections. Suggest this national
unity government will remain in place until Status is achieved.
-
Explain
quietly to US, Brits, EU, Germans and French – perhaps in that
order – that political realities and especially pressure for
breaking impasse cannot be put off indefinitely. “We
will have to begin responding in a visible way – and participating
in elections will not be enough by itself – or risk losing control
of the situation. We are exploring political options (not
to be specified at this point) but
including the “technical government.” We’d appreciate your
support for this.” Avoid suggesting
deadlines at this point.
Second
15 days
-
Continue
serious engagement with Troika but be privately honest with US and
others about progress or lack in the “negotiations.” Avoid much
public comment.
-
Announce formation of
technical government and decision to not hold elections until Status
is achieved. (This is first “unilateral” step and no one can
complain if you don’t.)
-
Tell US
alone what you plan to be doing next few months and explain that it
is an effort to manage the process until end-of-year holidays but
that this cannot be maintained much longer than beginning of New
Year. Tensions will soon outweigh ability to keep things together.
US should use this period to get the Europeans ready for
declaration.
-
Begin
holding series of town meetings in various parts of Kosovo (nowhere
provocative though) to “learn the people’s concerns.” Keep
the IC out of it (including UNMIK-P) and do whatever is necessary to
avoid large crowds or events that get out of control. Reps from all
parties can attend or they can be delegated on basis of local
politics to represent everyone. (Second “unilateral” step.)
-
Announce
that consultations with the people will continue through early
December, so that a clear view will be obtained of public concerns
and sentiments. (But don’t once say “about independence.”
Very important at this phase is what is not
said.)
Next 60 days
-
Continue engagement in
negotiations.
-
Continue
town-hall meetings (with perhaps break for Ramadan days, calling for
everyone to reflect about the future and the need for peaceful
chance during these days, Imams preaching this will be very
effective).
-
Concentrate
fully on making technical government work. Work as much as possible
– and as visibly as possible – with the EU and ICO on getting
ready to implement Ahtisaari
plan. Do as much as possible on getting ready to implement new
municipalities. (Perhaps allow UNMIK creation of North Mitrovica as
first step and sign of seriousness.) Avoid public disagreements on
anything remotely related to status.
-
Do
everything possible to make Serbs, especially south of the River, as
happy as possible. Support any realistic returns project. Resolve
any procedural issues, use all possibilities for practical
cooperation
-
Focus all resources possible
on preparing for the winter.
-
Keep
US and others privately apprised of your views on Troika process.
If the process is visibly moribund or going nowhere at some point,
urgently ask US and others “what
do we do now”
but make clear if necessary – and not through the press – that
the CG principles cannot be abandoned without great political cost
for all.
Next
30 days
-
Wrap
up town hall meetings in time to prepare a “report” that will go
to the national assembly on December 6. Announce that the Assembly
will take up consideration of how to respond to what has been
learned from these consultations with the people and the results of
the negotiations. Give no date.
-
Give
US and others frank, but private, view of value of negotiations.
Explain that you have been working hard to manage political process
but things must begin moving forward one way or another early next
year.
-
Allow
“spontaneous” but absolutely controlled public rallies (by party
and/or region) in favor of taking next steps, in favor of
independence. As large as can be safely held with NO incidents
whatever. These must be seen as mature displays of readiness for
assuming control over own future. No threatening words or actions.
-
Announce
travel of unity team (all government parties) to major capitals to
consult on next steps consistent with Ahtisaari plan early in new
year.
-
Encourage and help everyone
to enjoy the coming holidays.
-
Tell
US alone (and maybe Brits) that national assembly will go into
session to discuss next steps after holidays and to begin drafting a
declaration of independence. You are prepared to discuss but this
step will be inevitable. Process will include further consultations
and town meetings to vet the document. Declaration would be made
sometime early spring. If meanwhile, EU or even UNSC can make
decision, so much the better.
-
Show IC calm determination.
Continue to exercise control, resist all provocations (especially
from north) and give UNMIK and KFOR full support for their efforts.
January
2008
-
At beginning of month, inform
other key countries that Assembly will begin drafting declaration by
month’s end.
-
Assembly
reconvenes and finishes discussion of previous consultations with
focus on next steps in line with Ahtisaari plan. All views aired,
visibly gauge public reaction.
-
By
month’s end, national unity government announces that Assembly
will next take up task of drafting a declaration of independence
while awaiting possible UNSC action. (Big unilateral step but still
not the final one).
February
2008
-
Make
it privately clear to US and Europeans that you have done all
possible to give them time but with or without them, you must take
next steps to preserve stability. You will do your part to maintain
security and to prepare for implementation of Ahtisaari plan. They
must get ready to play theirs. Reaffirm your adherence to CG three
principles and remind them of theirs. No one can be allowed to veto
this process. Declaration – date certain – will be in April.
-
Process
of drafting Declaration enshrining commitment to Kosovo for all its
people and to Ahtisaari plan starts in Assembly. No rallies or
demonstrations at this point put serious discussion throughout the
land.
March
2008
-
Draft declaration is approved
and published. New series of town meeting held to consult with the
people.
-
Continued efforts to publicly
reassure and reach-out to non-Albanians.
-
Absolute control necessary.
No violence, threats or incidents. Resist all provocations while
supporting KPS, UNMIK and KFOR as necessary.
-
US
and others informed of date in April for declaration. Message: the
public process so far has helped to channel and contain public
sentiments, process cannot now be stopped.
April
2008
-
Announce
elections for four months after declaration (as called for in
Ahtisaari plan).
-
Be
ready for crisis appeals/demands from IC to give negotiations
“another chance.”
-
More large but controlled
spontaneous marches and rallies for declaration.
-
April 23 (?), declaration
approved by Assembly.
end text
